Description of the Risk
Cause of pandemics
Pandemic Influenza emerges as a result of a new flu virus which is markedly
different from recently circulating strains. Few - if any - people
will have any immunity to this new virus thus allowing it to spread easily
and to cause more serious illness. The conditions that allow a new virus to
develop and spread continue to exist, and some features of modern society,
such as air travel, could accelerate the rate of spread. Experts therefore
agree that there is a high probability of a pandemic occurring, although
the timing and impact are impossible to predict.
Impacts of a pandemic
Past pandemics have varied in scale, severity and consequence, although in
general their impact has been much greater than that of even the most
severe winter 'epidemic'.
It is impossible to forecast the precise characteristics, spread and impact
of a new influenza virus strain, however based on historical information
and scientific evidence we are able to predict the possible impacts:
-
Many millions of people around the world will become infected, up to
around 50% become ill with symptoms, and a variable proportion die from
the disease itself or from complications such as pneumonia.
-
Up to one half of the population may become infected and between 20,000
and 750,000 additional deaths (that is deaths that would not have
happened over the same period of time had a pandemic not taken place) may
have occurred by the end of a pandemic in the UK.
-
In the absence of early or effective interventions, society is also
likely to face social and economic disruption, significant threats to the
continuity of essential services, lower production levels, shortages and
distribution difficulties. Individual organisations may also suffer from
the pandemic’s impact on business and services.
-
Large numbers of staff are likely to be absent from work at any one time.
More information on the likely characteristics and likelihood of a pandemic
can be found at:
The World Health
Organisation[External website] Experts predict another
pandemic will occur but cannot say exactly when. Each pandemic is different
and, until the virus starts circulating, it is impossible to predict its
full effects.
